Sack, replace, and repeat – a trusted antidote over time deployed by club owners who want to see their teams hit the ground running and record successes at all costs.
It’s a wild world out there for managers and head coaches of football teams. The pressure that comes with wearing the ‘gaffer’ hat is both inevitable and, in most cases, insurmountable.
This pressure can only be warded off with an upturn in results, but should the gaffers not be so lucky, owners take the drastic and sometimes dreadful decisions of changing the guard, not minding the huge chunk of pay-off the manager receives from his premature dismissal.
Upon appointing a new manager, club chairmen, and stakeholders are putting their money on doubly favourable results in half the time. For those who know their footballing lexicon, this is when the ‘new manager bounce’ takes full effect. An upshot that has the potential to change a club’s fortunes in just a number of days/weeks.
One standout example remains former forward, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s appointment as coach of Manchester United. Solskjaer had an incredible start to his second life at Manchester United after taking over from Jose Mourinho in December 2018.
In his first match, United eased past Cardiff City in a 5-1 win that marked the first time United scored five or more goals in a Premier League game since West Bromwich Albion in 2013 — incidentally, this was Sir Alex Ferguson’s final game in charge before his retirement in May that year.
Solskjaer went on to win the next four league games, making him the first United manager to win his first five league games since Sir Matt Busby in 1946. Though Solskjaer’s reign at Manchester United didn’t end as rosily as it had started, the Norwegian’s start to his managerial tenure, certainly bore all the hallmarks of the mythical ‘New Manager Bounce’.
Another notable beneficiary of the ‘New Manager Bounce’ was Chelsea’s Thomas Tuchel. The appointment of the German tactician, following the sack of Frank Lampard in January 2021, saw Tuchel soar on the wings of the mythical ‘New Manager Bounce’ when he took over the reins at Stamford Bridge.
Starting with a comfortable 2-0 home win over Burnley and then extending his unbeaten run to 14 games — which included victories in both legs against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League Round of 16 knockout stage — Tuchel began his post by setting a record for the longest unbeaten run (13) by a new head coach in Chelsea’s history. Tuchel’s first few months as Chelsea FC coach then climaxed when he clinched club football’s Holy Grail – the UEFA Champions League in May of 2021.
Though the trajectories of Solskjaer and Tuchel might argue in favour of, there are several managers — such as — that would testify to no such thing as the New Managers Bounce. It’s this elusive, ever-puzzling question which we aim to tackle today– is the new manager bounce real or merely an illusion?
What is the ‘New Manager Bounce’?
New managers often look more effective for a number of reasons, ranging from an increase in motivation and morale or the enthusiasm and fresh perspective/tactics the new coach brings with him. There is also a tendency of the established names to try to impress the new manager so that their places remain secured in the squad. On the other hand, fringe players also view this as an opportunity to elevate their status in the squad. Subsequently, the team’s confidence returns, and results start showing, translating to a quick turnaround of the fortunes. This is what we call a ‘new manager bounce’ in footballing parlance.
Is the ‘New Manager Bounce’ Real or a Myth?
First, let’s dive into a few statistics. According to a Premier League report, since the start of 2017/18, there were 26 managerial changes in the top-flight competition in four complete seasons. Of the 26 managerial changes that took place, 20 of them averaged more points per match (ppm) in their first five matches in charge, compared to the first 5 games of their predecessors.
In nine cases, the new manager doubled or exceeded the previous points average. However, some of the new-found successes didn’t translate into long-term successes. On average, an in-season replacement of the manager had a huge effect on the performances of the team during that particular season, but not quite in the long run.
An analysis performed courtesy of Olbg.com provides further evidence to answer this question. The sample consists of 149 new managerial appointments that have taken place within the Premier League’s 30-year history. The analysis, however, excludes all managerial appointments made between the months of May and August, as managers appointed in the off-season are afforded the chance to start from ground zero in the new season.
The below table looks at how many of these 149 managers got off to the perfect start and by this, earned three points after their first game in charge:
| Result | No. of managers who won their first games | Percentage % |
| W | 51 | 34.2% |
| D | 39 | 26.2% |
| L | 59 | 39.6% |
| Total | 149 | 100% |
Just 51 out of the 149 managers in our sample size (34.23%) managed to get the better of their opposition the first time out. For those looking for a bounce, 59 out of the 149 sample size (39.60%) actually had to make do with a defeat instead.
However, it is not just a win during the first game in charge which is important, getting momentum going is equally so. Next, olbg.com gave details of how many managers went on a winning streak of any kind:
| Streak | No. of managers | Percentage % |
| Two Wins | 16 | 10.7% |
| Three Wins | 4 | 2.7% |
| Four Wins | 1 | 0.7% |
| Five Wins | 0 | 0% |
| Six Wins | 0 | 0% |
Of the 149 managers involved, just 16 (10.74%) managed to earn back-to-back wins when taking a new job, while only four (2.68%) managed to earn a hat-trick of Premier League successes when in a new dugout.
Looking at these stats in summary, we can say ‘the bounce’ that comes when a new manager is appointed is often because things cannot get any worse. An uptick is almost inevitable. The bounce is an illusion and the new manager is the beneficiary – doubly so because not only does he have fresh achievements to bolster his portfolio, the positive results also give the new gaffer the time he needs to do the real work of sorting out his team.
