3 teams, 1 title. Going into the final international break of the season Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City have all maintained an unwavering momentum in the Premier League since the start of the year, hinting at a thrilling three-way battle for the title that promises to keep fans on the edge of their seats until the very end.
Despite reigning champions Manchester City hitting their stride again, they find themselves in third place. Meanwhile, injury-plagued Liverpool are neck and neck on points with Arsenal, who have ascended to the top of the table, albeit on goal difference (GD). Since the birth of the Premier League in 1992, we have never seen the gap between 1st and 3rd be this close at this stage of the season, thus one thing is clear- we are in for a rollercoaster of events.
This captivating title race raises questions about which of these formidable teams will ultimately lift the Premier League trophy. Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal, following a lackluster end to the 2022/23 season, appear more than capable of securing their first Premier League crown in 20 years. Liverpool, bidding farewell to manager Jurgen Klopp after his resignation announcement, seeks a fairy-tale ending under his exemplary leadership. Meanwhile, Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City aims to make history with an unprecedented 4th consecutive Premier League title.
As the excitement around the Premier League title race continues to build, FLOS examines the chances of these three teams in their quest for the title.
Arsenal
Current position: 1st
Current points: 64 (+46 GD)
Remaining fixtures: Manchester City (A), Luton Town (H), Brighton (A), Aston Villa (H), Wolves (A), Tottenham (A), Bournemouth (H), Manchester United (A), Everton (H), Chelsea (H – Date TBD)
Under Mikel Arteta’s stewardship, Arsenal have transformed into even more of a formidable force compared to the previous season. They continue to be lethal from set pieces, scoring 18 goals (league-high) thus far, greatly outperforming their xG of 10.83, and currently boast the defensive record in the league, conceding only 24 goals in 28 games.
The inclusion of Declan Rice and Kai Havertz over the 2023 summer transfer window has added more physicality and versatility to their midfield, while the controversial acquisition of David Raya has proved to be a worthy upgrade, with the Spaniard leading the league in clean sheets (9) in just 22 appearances. The Gunners find themselves leading the title race after a crucial victory over Brentford, coupled with a fascinating draw between Liverpool and Manchester City. Arsenal’s ability to dictate play and emulate Manchester City’s ruthlessness has been evident.
Since the turn of the year, Arsenal have found the back of the net 33 times and conceded a meagre 4, they are noticeably unbeaten against the ‘Big Six’ thus far this season, including home wins against both City and Liverpool, a record that has further stressed their intent as title challengers.
However, Arsenal’s path to the title is fraught with challenges, including matches against champions Manchester City, Aston Villa, Wolves, Tottenham, and arch-rivals Manchester United. While this free-flowing, youthful Arsenal side, who are currently on an 8-match winning streak, approach these fixtures with full confidence, the reality is that they cannot afford to drop points in more than two of their final 10 games as they go toe-to-toe with heavyweights City and Liverpool.
Arsenal’s Champions League campaign also looms large over their title aspirations. Progressing to the quarterfinals for the first time in 14 years has bolstered their confidence, and they will fancy their chances against a Bayern Munich side struggling domestically this season. Nonetheless, Arsenal’s Achilles’s heel lies in their squad depth, which may be insufficient to cope with injuries to key players such as Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice, William Saliba, or skipper Martin Odegaard. In contrast, rivals City and Liverpool boast greater depth and experience.
If Arsenal can maintain their fitness (and form), they are likely going to be involved in the title race down till the very end. Will last year’s bottlers become this year’s champions? As was the case last season, their fate is in their hands.
Liverpool
Current position: 2nd
Current points: 64 (+39 GD)
Remaining fixtures: Everton (A), Brighton (H), Sheffield United (H), Manchester United (A), Crystal Palace (H), Fulham (A), West Ham (A), Tottenham (H), Aston Villa (A), Wolves (H)
After the disappointing end to the 2022/23 season, which saw them finish outside the Champions League places and 22 points adrift of champions Manchester City, many expected a response from Liverpool, but few would have believed that Klopp’s side would find themselves fully entrenched in a title-race, especially given the significant squad overhaul in the summer, with experienced members like Roberto Firmino, James Milner, Fabinho and club captain Jordan Henderson all leaving Anfield last summer.
The Reds have stood resilient despite the numerous hurdles through the campaign, most significantly their injury list. They refuse to bow down in the face of adversity, claiming a league-high 23 points from losing positions this season. Captain Virgil Van Dijk looks to be back to his imperious best, newcomers Alexis MacAllister and Wataru Endo’s stellar performances in the midfield have seen both unanimously join the long list of shrewd signings made during the Klopp era, while the youngsters, particularly Conor Bradley and Jarrell Quansah have taken to the Premier League like a duck to water, easing the burden of losing the likes of Joel Matip and Trent Alexander-Arnold to long-term injuries.
Liverpool’s title charge is taking full steam, winning 4 of their last 5 games and only suffering 2 defeats (the fewest in the league) all season. Opta Power Rankings also claims that the Reds have the ‘most favourable’ schedule among the three contenders going into the run-in, with the only tricky encounters appearing to be against arch-rivals Manchester United, Tottenham (one of the 2 teams to beat Liverpool this season), and Champions League chasers Aston Villa. With the injury situation improving and fringe/youth players stepping up, Jurgen Klopp appears poised for a triumphant conclusion to his tenure at Liverpool. The team’s response to the German’s impending departure has been exceptional, with players motivated to secure a trophy-laden farewell for their manager. The Merseyside outfit have recorded 10 victories in their 12 matches since the announcement, only losing to Arsenal, and putting up a valiant effort in their draw against Manchester City in their last Premier League outing.
The Reds have already secured the Carabao Cup, after taking down Chelsea at Wembley, and have progressed to the quarter-final of the Europa League, but will have their eye on the bigger prize.
With Arsenal currently leading the tussle between the two sides via goal difference, Liverpool are aware that winning all remaining matches, while hoping for Arsenal to slip up at least once, will secure them the title. The Klopp factor remains pivotal for Liverpool, as his influence, title-winning experience, and the team’s response to his departure could all be deciding factors in this tightly contested title race.
Manchester City
Current position: 3rd
Current points: 63 (+35 GD)
Remaining fixtures: Brighton (A), Arsenal (H), Aston Villa (H), Crystal Palace (A), Luton Town (H), Tottenham (A), Nottingham Forest (A), Wolves (H), Fulham (A), West Ham (H)
It has become somewhat of a tradition for Manchester City to evolve into a formidable force at this stage of the season, relentlessly pursuing all available titles.
After a busy summer in the transfer market, which saw notable figures such as Ikay Gundogan, Aymeric Laporte, Riyad Mahrez, Joao Cancelo, and local kid Cole Palmer exit the side, it’s been a challenging adjustment, particularly in the first half of the season, which saw defeats to Arsenal, Wolves and Aston Villa. However, the champions have flexed their way into the race and according to manager Pep Guardiola, they are going to “do it again” and attain the unprecedented 4th consecutive Premier League title.
Ahead of the run-in, despite being branded as clear favourites to retain their crown according to Opta Power Rankings, Guardiola’s side has shown vulnerability to counterattacks, and Erling Haaland has not been as clinical as in the previous season. Data courtesy of Fotmob states that the marquee forward has only been able to muster 18 goals, averaging at 0.84 goals per 90, a number which appears a far cry from his staggering 2022-23 season stats, where at this stage of the season, he averaged 1.17 goals per 90.
However, it has to be stressed that amid Haaland’s seemingly underwhelming form, Phil Foden has since stepped up to ensure Man City’s title hopes are alive. According to Fotmob, the 23-year-old is experiencing his best goal-scoring season in the colours of the Cityzens, with 18 goals and 10 assists in his 42 appearances so far.
Rodri’s influence also plays a decisive factor in City’s quest for an 8th Premier League title. With the Spaniard in the side anchoring the midfield, Man City boasts a 76% win ratio this season, a stark contrast to the 0% win rate in the 3 League games without him. His availability and form will be crucial in determining whether City can stay consistent and win their remaining fixtures to pip both Liverpool and Arsenal.
Manchester City’s upcoming fixtures in March and early April will be pivotal in defining their season. Following their draw at Liverpool, they face a challenging run against fellow title-chasers Arsenal, Brighton, and Aston Villa (who beat them earlier this season). City understand the importance of winning all three of these games to secure a commanding position in the title race. With the competition being so tight, their home game against Arsenal on March 31st looms as a crucial encounter. Whilst form and the general fatigue of chasing consecutive trebles may not be on their side in comparison to their rivals, experience certainly is. The Blues have been here before so many times, and 9/10 they come out on top. Led by the master tactician Guardiola, they simply cannot be underestimated and have shown their capability of going on lengthy win streaks in the last stretch. The champions have done it before and
most certainly will have to do it again to ensure victory.
FLOS’ Forecast
The outcome of the season remains uncertain, and there undoubtedly will be further twists, turns, and lead changes during the run-in. Form, the Fairytale, and Experience- Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City all have plausible cases for why they have the edge over the others to win the league. However, given the consistency of results since the turn of the year and the eagerness to improve on last season’s late crumble, Arsenal appear to be the best-placed side to win and secure their first Premier League crown since Arsene Wenger’s invincible era.
