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Bundesliga Title Run-In: Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund

The German Bundesliga is approaching its conclusion next month. In contrast to past seasons in the German top flight, there is a genuine title race. Bayern Munich, having had a firm grip on German football for over a decade now (10 consecutive Bundesliga title wins since 2013), have failed to match their lofty standards this season. This has sparked criticism of the Bundesliga for its lack of competition, as the others have been unable to challenge Bayern for domestic supremacy.

The script is looking rather different this year, With Borussia Dortmund winning 11 of their last 14 games this calendar year and Bayern’s instability behind the scenes, it feels like the perfect time to take the title away from Bayern. With just five games left, Dortmund currently leads the Bundesliga. They are ahead of Bayern by just a point. Union Berlin (the surprise package of the league) and Freiburg are not far off the top two, however, the winner will likely be between Bayern and Dortmund.

So, can Dortmund finally achieve league success for the first time since 2012 or can the Bayern machine recover and lift the Meisterschale (Champions’ Bowl) for the 11th consecutive season? We take an in-depth look at the aforementioned teams below.

BORUSSIA DORTMUND

Since winning the Bundesliga in 2012, Dortmund have been unable to consistently challenge for the Bundesliga. Finishing over 10 points behind Bayern in eight of the last ten seasons. Having lost star striker Erling Haaland last summer, Dortmund were forced to refresh their squad. Signing Nico Schlotterbeck, Niklas Sule, Karim Adeyemi and Sebastien Haller. However, Haller missed the first half of the season after being diagnosed with a testicular tumour.

They also appointed Edin Terzic in May 2022 after sacking Marco Rose. Dortmund enjoyed a strong start to the season, winning four of their first five games. However, they suffered a humiliating and shocking home defeat to Werder Bremen 3-2, having been 2-0 up with just two minutes left. They went on to win just one in their next five games, losing to Union Berlin, FC Koln and RB Leipzig, with a draw against champions Bayern Munich, thanks to a late equaliser by Anthony Modeste, proving to be the only encouraging result during that spell. After winning three straight games, Dortmund suffered consecutive defeats against Wolfsburg and Gladbach to enter the World Cup break with 25 points from 15 league games.

Following the resumption, Dortmund came back on electric form, winning nine of their ten league games, overtaking Bayern to top the table on matchday 25. They would lose the top spot to Bayern after losing ‘Der Klassiker’ 4-2 at the Allianz Arena. Following Bayern’s draw to Hoffenheim on matchday 28, Dortmund failed to capitalize, mustering a draw to relegation-threatened Stuttgart. They, however, capitalize on Bayern dropping points again, beating Frankfurt 4-0 to go top of the table with five games left.

The secret to Dortmund’s success this season has been the even distribution of goals in the squad. They have been 17 different scorers for the Black and Yellow this season to compensate for the loss of Haaland. Julian Brandt is Dortmund’s top scorer in the league with eight goals. Donyell Malen and Youssoufa Moukoko have seven goals each while Marco Reus and Gio Reyna have six. Their most influential player this year has been star midfielder, Jude Bellingham. The English teenager has been ever present for the Black and Yellow, playing the most minutes in the Dortmund squad (2421 minutes). He has scored five times from midfield, making the most shot-creating actions and making the most tackles and interceptions as well (104 tackles & interceptions, 109 shot-creating actions).

There is a sense of opportunity for Dortmund this season but they face a tricky schedule in their remaining five games:  Bochum away, Wolfsburg and Gladbach (at home), Augsburg away and Mainz at the Signal Iduna Park on the final day. Dortmund will need to be composed and not shoot themselves in the foot, as they have often been disappointed whenever there are some expectations of them. If they do win it, it will be a momentous achievement to finally end Bayern’s dominance.

BAYERN MUNICH

After winning their tenth consecutive Bundesliga title, Bayern parted ways with star player Robert Lewandowski, as the Polish striker moved to Barcelona. His departure left a vacuum in attack, Bayern signed Sadio Mane from Liverpool as a replacement, after the Senegalese forward enjoyed a successful 6-year stint at Anfield. Dutch defender Matthijs de Ligt, Dutch midfielder Ryan Gravenberch and Moroccan defender Noussair Mazaraoui came in to bolster the squad.

Julian Nagelsmann had the best start possible, as Bayern won three out of three, including scoring seven against Bochum. They, however, dropped points in four consecutive games which included an away defeat to Augsburg. After scoring four past Bayer Leverkusen, Bayern went away to Borussia Dortmund and got a 2-2 draw, conceding a late equalizer. They went on to win their next six games, scoring 24 games and conceding just five goals. However, Bayern lost Sadio Mane to a knee injury in November, keeping him out for three months plus the World Cup.

Following the league’s resumption, Bayern drew three games to Leipzig, Koln and Frankfurt before getting three points against Wolfsburg. They made additional reinforcements in January, signing Yann Sommer from Gladbach after Manuel Neuer suffered a freakish leg injury that ruled him out for the rest of the season. Portuguese full-back Joao Cancelo was a shock signing, securing his services on loan after he was made surplus to requirements by Pep Guardiola. 

Following three wins, Bayern suffered a damning defeat to Leverkusen which prompted the Bavarians to part company with Julian Nagelsmann, appointing Thomas Tuchel swiftly. A big gamble from Bayern CEO Olivier Kahn and Sporting Director Hasan Salihamidzic as Bayern was cruising in the Champions League, albeit their domestic woes. Tuchel won his first game in charge against Dortmund at home and followed it up with another victory, beating Freiburg 1-0.  Bayern then dropped points against Hoffenheim and lost 3-1 away at Mainz, losing the top spot with five games left. 

Given Bayern’s troubles on and off the field, their squad is still the strongest in the Bundesliga- by a wide margin. They have scored the most goals (79), but have missed a focal point in their attack. Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting has played a significant role for Bayern since the turn of the year, providing that focal point in the attack that Mane, Gnabry or Sane have struggled to replicate. Jamal Musiala has come leaps and bounds this season, scoring 11 times and assisting 9 times. Sadio Mane has cut an underwhelming figure at Bayern, scoring just seven times in the league, and more significantly been involved in a bust-up with fellow teammate Leroy Sane

Bayern’s remaining fixtures are Hertha Berlin at home, followed by Werder Bremen (away). They host relegation-threatened Schalke then play RB Leipzig at home before travelling to face Koln on the final day. Out of the DFB-Pokal and the Champions League, the Bundesliga is the only source of success (and silverware) for Bayern this season. If they fail to win it, there will be questions asked of the Bayern hierarchy, particularly Kahn and Salihamidzic, who are the key decision-makers at the Allianz Arena.

PREDICTIONS

Despite the uncertainty at the Allianz Arena, the Bundesliga title is still Bayern’s to lose. They have been in these situations before and have usually ended up coming out on top at the expense of Dortmund. The last title race between these two was in 2019, where Dortmund lost the title by two points but was top for the majority of the season.

Dortmund have been unable to handle the expectation of being chased. This season has brought various games where that notion is true. Despite having just two away games left, Dortmund are still vulnerable to a title collapse; with the added pressure of ending their league drought and the inexperience of their squad. 

Bayern might have tricky fixtures themselves, particularly Leipzig and Koln. However, their know-how and fear of this season being a complete failure might push them on to defend the title. We’re going to give them a 65% chance of retaining the title but with the unpredictability of the Bundesliga this season and football in general? It’s anyone’s guess. 

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